Tyler Cowen

The Latest Bias to Worry About: Recency Bias

In politics and economics, too many predictions give disproportionate weight to the events of the recent past.

I fear we are committing a form of recency bias by not focusing more on nuclear weapons and the policies surrounding nuclear proliferation and nuclear-weapons use. Atomic bombs have not been used against humans since 1945, and so for many people they are not a major concern, having been supplanted by fears of climate change. But a broader lesson of human history is that, if a weapon is available, sooner or later someone will use it.