Linda Goudsmit,

Countdown: 

Civil Wars Start With Politics, Not With Guns

On this day in 1954,

Willie Mays makes "The Catch"

 in World Series Game 1 v. Indians

Iraqi Model Gunned Down In Baghdad Amid Flurry Of Female Activist Assassinations

On this day in 1941,

Ted Williams Goes 6-8 in Last Day DH to Finish Season with .406 Avg.

100 years ago today,

The Start of the Deadliest Battle in U.S. History - The Battle of Argonne Forest

26,000 American Boys Killed

100,000 Wounded

Wikipedia Summary

On this day in 1945,

First American Soldier Killed in Vietnam

On this day in 1945, Lt. Col. Peter Dewey, became the first American soldier killed in Vietnam.  Dewey was a U.S. Army officer with the Office of Strategic Services and was the head of a seven-man team sent to Vietnam to search for missing American pilots and to gather information on the situation in the country after the surrender of the Japanese.

Two decades later Democrat President John Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson would send up to 500,000 American troops to fight in Vietnam. By the time the Vietnam War was over, 58,000 young American boys, most of whom had been drafted and forced to go to Vietnam to fight, had been killed. 

National Review  

Did Pope Francis Just Make China Protestant?

Grant's Almost Daily.

Is China on the Precipice?

Today the U.S. imposed 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. As a result, President Xi Jinping is no longer negotiating with President Donald Trump, according to a dispatch from state-run Xinhua News Agency. “The door for trade talks is always open but negotiations must be held in an environment of mutual respect . . . [Negotiations] cannot be carried out under the threat of tariffs.”

While China and the U.S. butt heads over trade, Beijing looks to engender goodwill from other nations, as well as from its own populace. On Thursday, Bloomberg reported that China “is planning to cut the average tariff rates on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month.” That move follows an income tax cut enacted at the end of August that featured an increase in the annual tax-free threshold to Rmb. 60,000 ($8,800) from Rmb. 42,000 as well as expanded deductions and an expanded range of lower tax brackets. 

In the past, China might respond to a slowdown by flooding the economy with credit. Might that debt-driven model be approaching the end of its rope? Last Wednesday, premier Li Kequiang, the second most senior figure in the ruling communist party, offered some less-than encouraging remarks at a World Economic Forum conference in Tianjin: “Deeply integrated into the world economy, the Chinese economy is inevitably affected by notable changes in the global economic and trade context. Indeed, we’re facing greater difficulties in keeping stable performance of the Chinese economy.”  

But if Li’s remarks indicate that the trade spat is front and center, commentary in the latest edition of the China Beige Book, an independent research boutique, implies that at least one major facet of the economy is independently in the doldrums. 

Manufacturing is under fire. The sector’s multi-year rally has given way to declining revenue and sharply declining profit growth. Critically, manufacturing’s plight is occurring before any meaningful American tariffs have been imposed. Absent a fall trade deal, the situation will likely deteriorate. The pace of borrowing – at 41% of firms, the highest since 2012 – sure smells a lot like panic. 

Then, too, the crucial property sector is facing rocky terrain ahead. Today, Bloomberg reports that “China’s debt laden developers face a potentially devastating blow to their biggest source of financing, as authorities consider putting an end to the practice of selling apartments before they are finished.”  That development augurs poorly for the group, which derives as much as 20% of its sales from the tactic according to Bloomberg. Since late January, the Shanghai Composite Property Index has tumbled by 29%, in excess of the 21% decline in the broad Shanghai Composite Index over that period. 

Does a vulnerable real-estate market present the risk of broader economic pain? In a note today, Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research argues as much:

The top class of Chinese are very wealthy, probably richer in fixed assets and cash than consumers in any other country now. But few of these high net worth individuals rely on salary income. For most, income has broadly been a mix of inbound flows, including passive income from high-return, high-risk financial products and trading income from property dealing.

Those flows are at risk of decelerating faster than China’s anticipated broad, macro-deceleration. Non-financial assets are facing a growing liquidity challenge, and that is likely to reveal that their current “valuations” are totally detached from any market reality. Financial assets are increasingly victims of Ponzi dynamics that drove their high returns to investors in the absence of any real productivity returns . . . so defaults in the non-state financial services arena have become a worry for consumers and regulators alike. 

Broad implications of an extended slump in real estate activity could be significant. According to Noah Research, 65% of household assets in mainland China are allocated to real estate, far above the 49% in the U.S. and 34% in Japan.

Keep an eye on the Middle Kingdom. 

Ann Althouse:

With the devious use of the disjunctive "or," Michael Avenatti raises a cloud of "gang rape" suspicion around Brett Kavanaugh.

Cal State Long Beach removing “Prospector Pete” statue because 1849 Gold Rush now politically incorrect

I thought the science was settled.

New Research Confirms We Got Cholesterol All Wrong

LINDSEY GRAHAM: FBI AND DOJ WAGING ‘BUREAUCRATIC COUP’ AGAINST TRUMP

Dr. Helen Smith: Do Married Men Make More Money or Do Women Marry Older Men who Make More?

Haley Says Iran's Economy Is `Plummeting' Under U.S. Pressure