Saturday, September 15, 2018

Latest Atlanta Fed GDP Growth Forecast = +4.4%

On this day, 55 years ago.

Four Young Black Girls Killed 

 in Birmingham Church Bombing


From This Day In History:

On this day in 1963, a bomb explodes during Sunday morning services in the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, Alabama, killing four young girls.

With its large African-American congregation, the 16th Street Baptist Church served as a meeting place for civil rights leaders like Martin Luther King, Jr., who once called Birmingham a “symbol of hardcore resistance to integration.” Alabama’s governor, George Wallace, made preserving racial segregation one of the central goals of his administration, and Birmingham had one of the most violent and lawless chapters of the Ku Klux Klan.

The church bombing was the third in Birmingham in 11 days after a federal order came down to integrate Alabama’s school system. Fifteen sticks of dynamite were planted in the church basement, underneath what turned out to be the girls’ restroom. The bomb detonated at 10:19 a.m., killing Cynthia Wesley, Carole Robertson and Addie Mae Collins–all 14 years old–and 11-year-old Denise McNair. Immediately after the blast, church members wandered dazed and bloodied, covered with white powder and broken stained glass, before starting to dig in the rubble to search for survivors. More than 20 other members of the congregation were injured in the blast.

When thousands of angry black protesters assembled at the crime scene, Wallace sent hundreds of police and state troopers to the area to break up the crowd. Two young black men were killed that night, one by police and another by racist thugs. Meanwhile, public outrage over the bombing continued to grow, drawing international attention to Birmingham. At a funeral for three of the girls (one’s family preferred a separate, private service), King addressed more than 8,000 mourners.

A well-known Klan member, Robert Chambliss, was charged with murder and with buying 122 sticks of dynamite. In October 1963, Chambliss was cleared of the murder charge and received a six-month jail sentence and a $100 fine for the dynamite. Although a subsequent FBI investigation identified three other men–Bobby Frank Cherry, Herman Cash and Thomas E. Blanton, Jr.–as having helped Chambliss commit the crime, it was later revealed that FBI chairman J. Edgar Hoover blocked their prosecution and shut down the investigation without filing charges in 1968. After Alabama Attorney General Bill Baxley reopened the case, Chambliss was convicted in 1977 and sentenced to life in prison.

Efforts to prosecute the other three men believed responsible for the bombing continued for decades. Though Cash died in 1994, Cherry and Blanton were arrested and charged with four counts of murder in 2000. Blanton was convicted and sentenced to life in prison. Cherry’s trial was delayed after judges ruled he was mentally incompetent to stand trial. This decision was later reversed. On May 22, 2002, Cherry was convicted and sentenced to life, bringing a long-awaited victory to the friends and families of the four young victims.

Is Mueller Going After Democrat Lobbyists Next?

Friday, September 14, 2018

NASA: Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth


American Thinker:

Average worker's pay has actually risen much faster than average CEO pay

Top U.S. trade negotiator says Canadian dairy the most difficult issue of his career

Ed Yardeni: 

What If Trump's Economic Policies Work?


WOODWARD FOUND NO EVIDENCE OF COLLUSION, EVEN THOUGH HE ‘LOOKED FOR IT HARD’

Sara Carter: NYT Got Mad at Strzok/Page Because They Leaked To WaPo

https://saraacarter.com/damning-new-strzok-text-to-page-the-times-is-angry-with-us-about-the-wp-scoop/

The Virtue of Nationalism, by Yoram Hazony


Byron York:

A Summary of Prior Citicisms of Woodward's Methodology

What the Big Short's Steve Eisman thinks of the financial crisis 10 years later

"I would say that Alan Greenspan will go down in history as the worst Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the history of the United States"
The man who presaged Trumpism, Pat Buchanan:

Tucker Carlson is right: Diversity is not our strength

"Recent history shows the more diverse a nation, the greater the danger of its disintegration."
On this day in 1847,

The Mexican-American War in 5 Minutes
50 Years Ago Today,

Tigers' Denny McLain Wins 30th Game


                                             The call by the legendary Ernie Harwell
Including my third favorite living economist, Gary Shilling:

These four called the last financial crisis - here’s what they see causing the next one

Althouse Says Kavanaugh Hearings Irksome - Agrees w/ J. Ginsburg "Highly Partisan"

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Geoff Pilkington -

Does Today's Bitter Political Divide Indicate the 7th Sense Has Arrived?

Grant's Almost Daily 9/12,

Higher Oil Prices Coming?

Today, the Department of Energy reported a 5.3 million barrel drawdown of U.S. crude oil inventories for the week, well above the Bloomberg consensus for a 2 million barrel decline. Those bullish inventory figures, along with disruptive potential from the incoming Hurricane Florence and the impact of sanctions on Iran, OPEC’s third largest producer, helped maintain a strong bid in the energy patch as WTI reached $71 and Brent Crude leaped above $80 for the first time since May. 
 
This week’s outsize decline builds on a sharp recent dwindling in domestic stockpiles. According to the Department of Energy, total U.S. crude inventories fell to less than 396 million barrels last week, down more than 15% year-over-year.  That’s despite a steady uptick in domestic output thanks in large part to the shale boom, as DOE production held near its all-time high last week at 10.9 million barrels a day, up 17% year-over-year.
 
Domestic output is set to continue its rise, but perhaps not to the extent that energy bears have counted on.  Thus, the International Energy Agency trimmed its 2019 U.S. production forecast to 11.5 million barrels a day in the September Short Term Energy Outlook, down more than 3% from the 11.86 million barrel estimate in May. 
 
Then too, an anecdotal point from services giant Halliburton Co. indicates that shale activity may not be as bustling as some expected. Last Wednesday, Halliburton CEO Jeff Miller told attendees at a Barclays energy conference: “A decrease in customer urgency. . . has occurred, and we have more white space [in our calendar] than expected.”  Miller likewise observed that: “We are seeing slower than expected activity ramp on several new contracts in the Middle East.”   
 
While investors were taken by surprise, sending Halliburton shares lower by 6% on heavy trading volume, the news corresponds with the bullish thesis laid out by natural resource investors Leigh Goehring and Adam Rozencwajg.  The pair’s second quarter investor letter notes that 2017 global oil discoveries of four billion barrels lagged far behind the 35 billion in global consumption, and they estimate that discoveries have trailed consumption by 210 billion barrels since 2012.  Likewise, Rystad Energy estimates that capital spending in the oil and gas industry will total only $440 billion between 2015 and 2020, just over half of the $875 billion outlay in the 2010 to 2015 period. 
 
Might a looming supply shortfall set the stage for far higher energy prices?  Grant’s put the question to Goehring, who finds that U.S. demand growth is fast outpacing rising domestic production growth, while OPEC struggles to maintain its quota and non-OPEC conventional production remains below its 2010 levels.  
If the U.S. output disappoints, and OPEC’s production can’t hold at [the current 32.7 million barrels a day quota] . . . then we fall into another year of steep deficits that quickly get out of control.    
Energy watchers won’t have to wait too long for an update, as OPEC is scheduled to meet in Algeria later this month, with a press conference scheduled for Sept. 23. For their part, Goehring and Rozencwajg remain highly bullish on energy prices: 
We believe the bull market in oil (ignored thus far every step of the way by the investment community), is set to dramatically accelerate to the upside. Stay long oil and oil-related investments. 
Grant’s, also bullish on oil (see the March 10, 2017 issue for more), continues to concur with the assessment of Goehring and Rozencwajg. 

Middle-class income hit an all-time high of $61,400 last year, U.S. Census says


1968  

It was an awful year.  
Here it is in a 4 minute video by Chuck Braverman


On 9/11/01 Donald Trump Sent 100's From His Work Crews Into The Buildings At His Own Expense To Look For Survivors



Sunday, September 9, 2018

Lib WaPo and Brookings Institution Agree:

Blue-collar Job Growth At Highest Level In 30 Years

From National Interest.

Trump's Record Trumps Political Pundits Who No Longer Shape Political Opinion

On this day in 1942,

JAPANESE FIGHTER PLANE BOMBS OREGON COAST 1ST OF TWO TIMES

FDR blacks out news and does not tell Americans





On this day in 1942, a Japanese floatplane launched from a submarine and piloted by Nobuo Fujita firebombed Mount Emily in an Oregon state forest, the only air bombing of the continental United States.  President Roosevelt responded in part by blacking out all news of the event so as not to panic the American people.  

Later that same month, Fujita tried to bomb the U.S. again:
After returning to I-25, Fujita was more determined than ever to drop the four remaining incendiary bombs carried aboard the submarine. Captain Tagami shared his enthusiasm. He advised his pilot, We’ll make the next one a night attack, Fujita, for the Americans will be expecting another sunrise one. True to his word, Tagami surfaced I-25 after midnight on September 29,1942, about 50 miles west of Cape Blanco. This time the entire west coast of Oregon, except for the Cape Blanco lighthouse, was blacked out. Fujita’s floatplane was catapulted into the darkness, and the pilot flew east beyond the Cape Blanco lighthouse for about half an hour before dropping the two incendiary bombs. Again Fujita was satisfied with the attack, as he observed two explosions of red fire in the forest below. In order to avoid detection, Fujita cut the Glen’s engine after passing the coastline and glided down to 1,000 feet before starting it again well out at sea, west of Cape Blanco. After some difficulty, Fujita located I-25 by an oil slick caused by a leak, and his plane was hoisted aboard.
Meanwhile, below in Oregon, a work crew of forest rangers was remodeling for winter occupation the Grassy Knob lookout station about seven miles east of Port Orford. At 5:22 a.m. they reported to ranger headquarters at Gold Beach the presence of an unidentified aircraft. Noise from the aircraft was described as like a Model T with a rod out. A fire-fighting patrol was sent out from Grassy Knob after daylight on September 29, but it found neither smoke nor any bomb debris during a fruitless two-day search. Neither of the incendiary bombs dropped by Fujita on his second attack has ever been found.
Bad weather and heavy seas precluded a final bombing attack with the remaining two bombs. Captain Tagami canceled the third mission, having decided to spend the rest of his patrol time in attacks on shipping. On October 11, I-25 fired her last torpedo and returned to Yokosuka, where Fujita discovered he was something of a national hero.
How significant were these two bombing attacks on Oregon, the only times in history that America has been bombed from the air? For the Japanese, they were clearly a major propaganda victory, one that made banner headlines on the home front and to some extent evened the score for the April 18, 1942, Jimmy Doolittle raid on Tokyo, itself a retaliatory raid in return for the Pearl Harbor attack. From a military standpoint, however, the bombing raids were virtually meaningless, because no serious fires were started or significant collateral damage inflicted. Likewise, although some public apprehension was caused by the attacks, no widespread panic developed on the U.S. West Coast, at least partially due to heavy press censorship. The raids were not repeated, because aircraft-carrying submarines gradually disappeared into the increasing category of obsolete weapons. Only one more Japanese submarine, I-12, operated off the West Coast during the remainder of the war. I-25 was sunk less than a year later by USS Patterson (DD-392) off the New Hebrides Islands on September 3, 1943.
Warrant Flying Officer Fujita continued reconnaissance flying until 1944, when he returned to Japan to train kamikaze pilots. His crewman, Petty Officer Okuda, was later killed in the South Pacific. After the war, Fujita opened a successful metal products sales business in Japan. Forestry student Johnson later became a U.S. Navy Captain and on January 24, 1974, held a luncheon reunion with Fujita in Tokyo. Executive officer Tatsuo Tsukudo of I-25 retired from the IJN as a vice admiral.
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